摘要
目的用季节移动平均数法预测医院住院人次。方法依据某院2006年-2008年住院人次,应用季节移动平均数法预测2009年1-4季度住院人次,并评价预测效果。结果使用季节移动平均数法所得2009年各季度住院人次的预测值较为精确,误差较小。结论季节移动平均数法简便易行,预测效果好,可为医院管理决策提供依据。
Objective This article predicts hospitalization man-time by seasonal moving averages method.Methods According to hospitalization man-time of a hospital from 2006 to 2008,it predicts hospitalization man-time for the first season to the forth season of 2009 by seasonal moving averages method,evaluating the effect of prediction.Results The prediction about hospitalization of seasons in 2009 is quite precision and minor error by using seasonal moving averages method.Conclusions The seasonal moving averages method is simple,convenient and easy to operation,which effect of prediction is well,proving basis for hospital management decision.
出处
《中国病案》
2011年第5期47-49,共3页
Chinese Medical Record
关键词
季节移动平均数法
预测
住院人次
预测误差
Seasonal moving averages method
Prediction
Hospitalization man-time
Error of prediction
