摘要
近期CPI价格较快上涨触动社会居民对通货膨胀风险的心理防线,防止价格水平上涨成为今后宏观经济政策的重要任务。运用分时协整方法探讨CPI通胀短期波动与长期均衡的路径特征,可发现1990年以来CPI滞后项对通货膨胀影响趋于显著,通货膨胀惯性增强。市场主体在通货紧缩时期的预期方式是前瞻性预期强于后向预期,通货膨胀时期预期以后向为主。财政支出在通货膨胀时期抑制价格上涨,在通货紧缩期间有助于扭转CPI下降。农产品期货价格与股票价格指数对CPI通胀的正向影响渐趋清晰,房地产价格上涨产生抑制CPI通胀的"转移效应"。通货膨胀率上涨期间总贷款、净出口和通货膨胀惯性是主要推动因素,不过加入包括农产品期货价格、房地产价格、股票价格指数和工业品出厂价格的方程对CPI波动解释力更强,供给冲击成为近期彰显的通货膨胀因素。通货膨胀新的特征警示货币信贷管理需要创新政策工具并采取更多前瞻性措施。
An exploratory investigation of the features of means from short-term CPI inflation fluctuation to long-term balance by timeshare adjustment means shows that the lagged CPI items since 1990 tend to have prominent effects on inflation and intensify the inertia of inflation. The market subject tends to hold forward expectations in time of deflation but backward expectations in time of inflation. Financial expenditure helps restrain the rise of price in time of inflation but reverse the fall of CPI in time of deflation. The price of agricultural produce and indexes of stock price tend to clearly have positive effects on CPI inflation and the rise of real estate produces a ＂transfer effect＂ to restrain CPI inflation. In time of inflation general loaning, net export and the inertia of inflation are the major promoting factors, but the participation of the price of produce futures and real estate, the indexes of stock price and the equation of ex-factory price of industrial commodity gives a stronger explanatory power to CPI fluctuation. However, the impact of supply has come to be a most prominent factor to inflation just recently.
出处
《陕西师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第3期139-149,共11页
Journal of Shaanxi Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家统计局全国统计学科研究计划重点项目(2009LZ045)
关键词
CPI通胀
通货膨胀惯性
资产价格
供给冲击
CPI inflation
inertia of inflation
price of property
impact of supply
