摘要
科学、准确的对各行业气象服务效益进行评估和分析,对政府和企业正确决策,提高气象防灾减灾能力,具有重要的作用和意义。采用剂量-反应分析和权变分析相结合的研究方法,研究构建了行业气象服务效益评估模式。该评估模式以典型企业的气象服务贡献率的实际测定值为参考值,并运用专家评估法,由行业专家估测出气象服务在该行业生产中的贡献率,在此基础上分析评估出行业的气象服务效益值。应用这一模式,按照"选定气象服务敏感性行业→各敏感性行业气象服务效益评估→行业气象服务总效益汇总与分析"的框架,在全国范围内对行业气象服务总效益进行了实证评估和分析。研究表明,在中国目前气象服务和经济发展水平下,气象服务在各行业中产生的年平均总效益至少不低于2 793亿元人民币(不含成本)。
It is very important to analyze and evaluate the benefit of meteorological service to all trades and professions for policy decision and taking precautions against meteorological calamities.In this study,profession meteorological service evaluation model was constructed,taking the experiences of other countries for reference.By applying this model,the position and function of the meteorological work in the whole national economy construction were analyzed,and the concepts,classification and characteristics of the meteorological service were studied,focusing on the basic thoughts of the benefit valuation of profession meteorological service.Also,basic methods to study the high meteorology-sensitive industry,and to determine the profession annual value ratio of production occupied by the high meteorology-sensitive industry were both established.Based on above work,the benefit of meteorological service to all Chinese high meteorology-hypersensitive industries were analyzed.Also,the profession annual value ratio of production occupied by the high meteorology-sensitive industry was obtained,and the benefit of the national profession meteorological service is initially evaluated through the expert valuation method（Dephi method）.At the present level,the annual mean benefit of meteorological service is no less than 279 billion yuan.（The cost is not included）.
出处
《气象科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第2期194-199,共6页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
基金
全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(2010CB951302)
中国气象局2006年气象服务效益评估研究课题
关键词
气象服务
效益评估
敏感行业
Meteorology service
Benefit evaluation
Meteorology-sensitie industry
