摘要
在建立人口安全水平评价指标体系的基础上,通过运用GPCA模型和基于Moran’s I统计量的全域空间关联的分析方法,对我国31个省域2005～2008年的人口安全水平现状及其空间相关性进行了动态综合评价。结果表明,近年来各地区之间的发展差距虽趋于缩小,但仍存在显著差异,不均衡发展的态势十分突出,且在空间分布上存在显著的自相关现象和集聚效应,省域人口安全状况的演化呈现出高度的空间稳定性。
Based on the evaluation index system of population security among provinces in China, this article makes dynamic comprehensive evaluation of population security on 31 provinces between 2005 and 2008 through GCPA model and Moran＇s I technique. It also makes tentative analysis on effect of spatial agglomeration. The result indicates that although the gap of population security among different provinces is decreasing, there are still significant discrepancies in them and the whole development is conspicuously disproportional. There is evidence that the layout of population security indices has obvious character of agglomeration and spatial autocorrelation. Meanwhile, there is explicit sign of path dependence in their space time evolution and the center-periphery pattern has been formed stably.
出处
《电子科技大学学报（社科版）》
2011年第2期23-26,31,共5页
Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
2008年国家社科基金西部项目:我国藏区人口安全问题与构建和谐社会研究(08XRK003)
