摘要
以2000年9月至2010年9月的月度数据为基础,实证研究了在美元持续贬值背景下黄金价格的影响因素,发现黄金价格呈现出持续上涨过程,其中美国消费者价格指数、美元指数对其有显著影响,全球黄金储备与黄金价格的关系正在经历方向性的改变,美国联邦基金利率对黄金价格影响有限。总之,世界黄金价格有可能进一步上升,建议中国货币当局增持黄金,以抵御外汇风险,构建完备的黄金市场以满足需求。
Based on the monthly data during sept.2000 to sept.2010,the paper studies the affecting factors on gold price in the background of US dollar＇s continuous depreciating.We find that the gold price shows a continuing growth course,while the US CPI and the dollar index affect it notably.The relationship between global gold reserve and gold price is experiencing directional change.The influence of the Federal Fund Rate on gold price is finite.Summarily,the global gold price will probably rise further.We advice that Chinese financial authority increases the gold reserve to counteract the risk in foreign exchange,and sets up more comprehensive gold market to accommodate people＇s various demand.
出处
《黄金》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第5期9-13,共5页
Gold
