摘要
基于情景分析在非常规突发事件应急决策中的重要性,为了提高情景分析的有效性、全面性,在非常规突发事件"情景"界定和演变规律分析的基础上,基于PSR模型构建非常规突发事件的"压力-状态-响应"网络表达方式;利用贝叶斯网络理论,构建非常规突发事件的情景演变分析模型;以简化后的大连输油管道爆炸事件为例,示范基于PSR模型与贝叶斯网络的非常规突发事件情景分析方法的具体流程,并对推理结果进行分析。分析结果与现实情况基本一致,证明方法的可行性和有效性。实际应用中可针对具体的事件进行"多响应"、"多路径"的推理分析,以全面、系统地分析事件情景的演变情况。
Considering the importance of scenario analysis in emergency decision-making of unconventional emergencies,and on the basis of defining the ＂scenario＂ and analyzing the ＂scenario＂ evolution of unconventional emergencies,a ＂pressure-state-response＂（PSR） network expression pattern for unconventional emergencies was set up based on PSR model so as to improve the validity and comprehensiveness of scenario analysis.Meanwhile,a ＂scenario＂ evolution analysis model for unconventional emergencies was also established based on Bayesian networks theory.With Dalian oil pipeline explosion accident as an example,the specific process of ＂scenario＂ evolution analysis model was illustrated,and the inference results were analyzed.The analysis results are consistent with the reality,which demonstrates that the model is feasible and effective.In practical application,the ＂multi-response＂ and multi-path reasoning analysis can be realized for the specific event.This study provides a comprehensive and systematic ＂scenario＂ evolution analysis method for the decision-making of unconventional emergencies.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第1期169-176,共8页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
陕西省教育厅专项基金项目(08JK364)
关键词
非常规突发事件
PSR模型
贝叶斯网络
情景分析
unconventional emergency
PSR（pressure-state-response） model
Bayesian networks
scenario analysis
