摘要
研究了中国长江三峡库区人口容量现状。结合三峡工程建成后库区实际,利用人口动力学方法建立了三峡地区人口发展预测数学模型,由此可以定量化地预测长江三峡库区未来人口发展状态。根据我国人口政策,提出了人口发展预测和控制,推进人口发展方式转变和管理体制创新是构建和谐三峡之首要任务的建议。
We studied present situation of population capacity in the Three Gorges Reservoir-region of the Yangtze River of China.And based on the practical situation of Reservoir-region after the Three-Gorges Project finished,we have established population-development forecast's mathematical-model of the Three Gorges area with the population dynamics method,which may quantitatively forecasts the future population-development condition in the Three Gorges Reservoir-region of the Yangtze River.According to the population policy of our country,we also proposed the suggestion that the most important tasks for the constructing harmonious.Three Gorges are to do the population development forecast control,and to make the population development way transformed the administrative system innovated.
出处
《西北人口》
CSSCI
2011年第3期100-103,共4页
Northwest Population Journal
基金
重庆市教育委员会科技项目(KJ1111XX)
重庆三峡学院重点科技项目(10ZD-13)
关键词
人口容量
人口发展预测
数学模型
和谐三峡
Population capacity
Population development forecast
Mathematical-model
Harmonious Three Gorges.