摘要
采用改进过的生态足迹模型对北京市的人地关系现状进行了分析,并应用GM(1,1)模型对其耕地面积和人口数量的未来变动趋势进行了预测。结果表明,北京市近十年来耕地生态足迹逐年增加,其中区域耕地生态足迹的变化幅度比人均耕地生态足迹的变化幅度大;耕地生态承载力逐年降低,其中人均耕地生态承载力的降幅较区域耕地生态承载力的降幅更加明显。耕地生态足迹与耕地承载力异向变化,加剧了生态赤字逐年加大的幅度。在此基础上提出了控制人口规模、提高耕地产出能力及保持耕地产品地区间流动性等措施。
This article analyzes the present situation of man- land relationship in Beijing by improved ecological foot- print model and predicts the changing trend of cultivated areaand population quantity in future by GM （1,1） model. The re- sults show that the ecological footprint of cultivated land in Bei- jing increases year by year in recent ten years. The total change range is bigger than the change range of ecological footprint per capita. Ecological capacity of cultivated land in Beijing decrea- ses year by year and ecological capacity per capita is bigger than the change range of total ecological capacity. The change of op- posite direction between ecological footprint and ecological ca- pacity intensifies the increase range of ecological deficit year by year. In the end, some measures are put forward such as con- trolling population scale, improving productivity of cultivated land, maintaining fluidity of inter - regional agricultural prod- ucts, etc.
出处
《城市问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第5期34-39,共6页
Urban Problems
基金
教育部“211工程”三期子项目--中国特色的公共管理与公共政策学科平台建设
关键词
生态足迹
生态承载力
GM(1.1)模型
人地关系
北京市
ecological footprint
ecological capacity
GM （ 1,1 ） model
man - land relationship
Beijing City
