摘要
依据漳河水库1963-2008年入库径流资料,采用R/S分析方法和M ann-Kendall参数秩次相关检验法对其未来入库径流变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明：①水库流域未来径流量将呈缓慢下降的趋势,且未来1月和7月的径流量变化趋势的随机性成份可能很大,应采取必要对策和措施,以应对未来可能出现的干旱或暴雨洪涝等自然灾害。②1995年为突变点,前后两个系列的统计特征值均具有明显的差异,已经不符合＂一致性＂的要求。③对于20世纪70~80年代的持续枯水期,应理解为这只是其径流丰枯周期变化中的一个枯水期。④流域人类活动日趋频繁,使得流域下垫面条件发生了较大的变化,对入库径流量有较大的影响。
Based on 1963-2008 inflow runoff data of Zhanghe reservoir,using R/S and Mann-Kendall method,the change trend of inflow runoff to the reservoir was analysed.The results showed that： ① The runoff of Zhanghe River Basin will be a slowly decreasing trend,and may include a significant stochastic component in January and July.It＇s necessary to take tactics and measures to react to the potential drought,flood and so on.②It was a mutation point in 1995,where an obivious difference occurred in the statistical values between two series,which was out of accordance with＂consistent＂.③The continuous dry seasons of 1970s-1980s shoud be explained as a dry water period of the cycle of dry and rich runoff.④The increasing human activities greatly change the conditions of underlying surface in the basin,which has great influence on the reservoir inflow.
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
2011年第2期153-156,共4页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
