摘要
利用国家气候中心１９９６、１９９７年１～１２月Ｔ６３模式所作的５００ｈＰａ７０次月延伸预报产品和１９６６～１９９６年ＥＣＭＷＦ的５００ｈＰａ旬平均高度场以及西南区域月气温和月雨量场资料，建立了用Ｔ６３动力产品预测西南区域月要素场的一种完全预报（ＰＰ）的动力－统计关系．并对西南区域１９９６年２月至１９９８年１月逐月气温和降水进行了预报试验．结果表明，这种利用动力延伸集合预报产品制作西南区域月要素场预报的动力与统计相结合的释用方法具有明显的预报能力．
The dynamical statistic relation of perfect prediction method (PPM) is formulated by using the data of the correction products of T63 model during 1996 1997, the 500 hPa mean dekad height field of ECMWF, and the mean monthly temperature and monthly precipitation over Southwest China from 1966 to1996. And the mean monthly temperature and monthly precipitation over Southwest China from Feb. 1996 to Jan. 1998 are predicted. The results show that the dynamical statistic method has obvious forecast potentiality for monthly element fields over Southwest China.
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1999年第3期368-373,共6页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
国家"九五"重中之重项目
四川省"九五"重大科技项目
关键词
延伸预报
产品释用
PP模型
短期气候预测
Extended range forecast Application of NWP product Perfect prediction method Short range climatic prediction
