摘要
为了对航班实时延误情况做出准确的预测,在生物免疫检测的基础上,借鉴模糊隶属度的思想,提出了模糊免疫预测方法。给出了自体/非自体、抗体/抗原的定义以及抗体对延误航班集合的隶属度函数。在预测过程中,实时监测外界环境变化,自适应调整λ-截集,选取符合当前置信度的检测器,克服了基于确定性模型的局限性。对国内某大型机场做仿真实验表明,该方法比简单使用生物免疫方法更具适应性,能较准确地预测全天各个时段航班的延误数量。
To make an accurate and real-time prediction for flight delays,referring to the thought of fuzzy membership grade,a fuzzy immune prediction method is proposed.The concepts of ″self″,″nonself″,″antibody″,″antigen″ and a membership degree function for antibody to the delayed flight set are defined.During the prediction process,through real-time monitoring changes of the environment and self-adaptive adjusting λ-cut sets,the paper chooses detectors according with the current confidence level,and overcome the limitations of the deterministic model.The simulation experiment on a domestic airport shows that the method is adaptive and can accurately predict delayed flight numbers of each period all day.
出处
《南京航空航天大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第2期257-261,共5页
Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics
基金
国家高技术研究发展计划("八六三"计划)(2006AA12A106)资助项目
国家自然科学基金(60879015)资助项目
民航科技(MHRD201013)资助项目
关键词
航班延误
模糊免疫策略
自适应调整
Λ-截集
实时预测
flight delays
fuzzy immune strategy
self-adaptive adjustment
λ-cut sets
real-time prediction
