摘要
基于1978~2006年的时间序列数据,运用向量自回归（VAR）模型,在此基础上进行协整分析、G ranger因果分析,并用脉冲响应函数对技术进步和技术效率对产业结构调整的动态效应进行分析。结果表明,我国技术进步与产业结构调整不相协调;技术效率是第一、第二产业比重变化的主要原因;技术进步和技术效率对第二产业的调整影响比较大,但对第三产业的影响力度比较小;技术进步是深化和优化产业结构根本途径,合理的产业结构促进技术进步和技术效率进一步提高。
Based on the time-series data from 1978 to 2008 in China,the paper develops a VAR model and analyzes the long-term equilibrium relation by co-integration test,Granger causality test and impulse response function.The results show that： Chinese technical progress is not coordinated with the adjustment of industrial structure;technical efficiency is the main reason to make the proportion change of the primary industry and the secondary industry;the influence of technical progress and technical efficiency on adjustment is deeper on the secondary industry than that on the tertiary industry;technical progress is the fundamental way to deepen and optimize the industrial structure,and reasonable industrial structure will improve technical progress and technical efficiency.
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第4期8-13,18,共7页
Soft Science
关键词
技术进步
技术效率
产业结构
协整
GRANGER因果关系
脉冲响应函数
technical progress
technical efficiency
industry structure
co-integration theory
Granger causality
impulse response function（IRF）
