摘要
本研究运用3种方法预测作物产量潜力,结果表明:(1)利用作物历年单产回归拟合后进行趋势外推,得出多数作物的未来产量潜力极限大约是现在单产的2～3倍;(2)运用国际应用系统研究所(IIASA)与"联合国粮农组织"(FAO)共同开发的"农业生态区划"(AEZ)模型计算中国主要粮油作物的区域单产最高潜力,得出水稻、小麦、玉米、马铃薯、油菜和大豆的单产潜力分别是它们2005年全国平均单产的1.2倍、2.2倍、2.2倍、2.9倍、2.0倍、1.9倍;(3)运用自然界中植物的最大光能利用率计算世界主要粮油作物单产的光合潜力,得出水稻、小麦、玉米、马铃薯、油菜、大豆产量的最大光合生产潜力大约分别是目前高产地区单产的1.4倍、2.5倍、1.2倍、1.8倍、1.9倍、2.2倍。据此:从作物产量潜力极限出发,阐述了农业生态系统的承载力;再从"封闭"系统特性出发,论述了全球生态经济系统的不可持续性。
The yield potentials of crops were projected in this research by three different methods：（1）the yield potentials of the majority of global crops were projected by the regression analysis of the historical annual crop yield data to be 2 to 3 times of their current yields;（2）the yield potentials of rice,wheat,maize,potato,rapeseed and soybean for China were projected by the AEZ model developed by IIASA and FAO to be 1.2,2.2,2.2,2.9,2.0 and 1.9 times of their 2005 country-wide average respectively;（3）the yield potentials of global rice,wheat,maize,potato,rapeseed and soybean were projected to be 1.4,2.5,1.2,1.8,1.9 and 2.2 times of their present record yield respectively,by the maximum light use efficiency（LUE）of plant model.The projected potential crop yields of the study indicated that the carrying capacity of global agro-ecosystem was limited.Thus,in a closed system such as the global ecological and economical system was not sustainable.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第3期404-407,共4页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
贵州大学2010年度人文社会科学一般项目"城镇化与新农村建设协调推进的区域优先序战略研究"(GDYB2010007)
