摘要
近年来我国商品住宅价格变化的区域差异越来越大,使得宏观调控政策在各地区产生了不同效果。文章在比较东部、中部和西部地区历年商品住宅价格波动状况的基础上,根据住宅市场存量——流量理论构建我国商品住宅市场的价格决定模型,并以2003—2008年我国28个省市自治区的面板数据为样本,运用面板数据的混合模型进行实证研究,结果表明:各区域商品住宅平均销售价格及其波动幅度存在较大差异;利率、预期、银行信贷和滞后价格是导致我国商品住宅价格波动存在巨大区域差异的主要原因;我国各区域商品住宅价格的上涨缺乏经济基本面的支持。
In recent years,China＇s commercial housing market develops rapidly,but at the same time the commercial housing price＇s regional difference becomes more and more large,which will cause government＇s housing price regulation policy produce different effects on different regions.This article firstly through qualitative description of the commercial housing price＇s fluctuation over years in central,eastern and western regions,found existing significant regional imbalance.Then it constructs commercial housing＇s price decision model for China based on housing market＇s Stock-Flow Theory,and finally makes empirical study using panel data mixed model,empirical results shows that： interest rate,expectation,bank credit and lagged commodity price are the main reasons led to house price fluctuation＇s huge regional difference,of which the interest rate,expectation,bank credit and lagged commodity price have great impact on the eastern region,while little impact on the central and western regions.
出处
《西安财经学院学报》
2011年第2期15-19,共5页
Journal of Xi’an University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金"住宅价格变化的系统动力学仿真模拟研究"(71073123)
教育部人文社科基金"基于正反馈交易行为的住宅价格异常变化及宏观调控研究"(08JA790100)
关键词
商品住宅
价格波动
区域差异
commodity housing
price volatility
regional difference
