摘要
近10年来电大的开放教育规模在迅速扩大,而开放教育教学投入却相对滞后。基于已有的各类高等教育(涉及普通高等教育、普高成人教育、电大高等教育和其他成人教育等4种)历年(1989-2008年)统计数据,从电大高等教育学生数量变化的特点中,可以探索历年电大高等教育学生数量与其他形式的高等教育特别是普通高等教育学生数量的关系,以期实现对未来10年电大高等教育学生数量的预测。研究结果表明:20年来电大高等教育招生数持续增长,其在整个高等教育招生数中的比例相对稳定,在10左右微小浮动;电大高等教育与普通高等教育的招生数(和在校生数)呈显著正相关关系,这意味着最近10余年来普通高等教育的扩招不但没有使电大高等教育的招生数下降,反而促使其不断增长;以普通高等教育在校生数为自变量、以电大高等教育在校生数为因变量建立了"电大规模方程",初步预测未来10年电大开放教育在校生数将达到450万左右。这一研究结果对规划国家开放大学未来学历教育的发展规模有着重要的参考价值。在建构终身教育体系中,开放大学与其他教育机构的差异化发展定位应更加明显。
In recent ten years, the Open Education （A kind of Distance Higher Education） of China TVUs has developed swiftly. However, the input in Open Education has not increased in proportion to its＇ increasing student seale, even decreased sometimes. In this paper, the authors find the characteristies of changes in China TVU Higher Education student number by analyzing the statistic data of four eategnries of high edueation in China from 1989 to 2008. And the authors try to diseover the correlation between China TVU Higher Education student number and the number of other categories of higher education, espeeially Regular Higher Education, in order to tbrecast the student number of China TVU Higher Education in ten years. The research results aree as follows. The enrollment amount of China TVU Higher Education has increased continuously trod is almost 10% of the whole higher edueation enrollment in the past 20 years. There exists signifieant correlation between the student number of China TVU Higher Education and that of Regular Higher Education, and the Correlation coefficient is 0.975, which means that the enrollment increase of Regular Higher Education in the past 10 years has not reduee the enrollment amount of China TVU Higher Education, but rather promoted it. The authars construct the Students Scale Equation of China TVU to forecast the student number of China TVU Higher Education in the next 10 yeats. The forecast result shows that the student number of China TVU Higher Education will enntinnously increase and reach about 4,500,000 in 2020 on condition thai the open education concept is maintained and instrction input keeps increasing. These research results could be helpful in planning the higher education scale of China Open University which is to be constructed based on TVUs. In China＇s Lifelong beaming system, the Op, en University trod other educational institutions should follow a more diversified development path.
出处
《现代远程教育研究》
CSSCI
2011年第2期27-32,共6页
Modern Distance Education Research
基金
2008年度教育部科学技术研究重点项目"e-leanring学习过程中的数据挖掘"(108185)成果之一
关键词
远程教育
电大规模方程
学生数量
预测研究
Distance Higher Edueation
TVU Scale Equation
Student Scale
Forecast Study
