摘要
通过以金融系统性风险的同步变量构成的中国金融压力指数为被解释变量,以滞后的宏观经济变量、货币信贷变量、资产价格变量和相关经济大国的宏观经济变量为解释变量,运用逐步回归法建立金融系统性风险最佳预测方程,从而构建起金融系统性风险预警的合理、实用的指标体系。并用此最佳预测方程对我国2010年金融系统性风险状况进行预测。预测结果表明,前三季度我国金融系统性风险呈上升态势,且高于2008年的最高值;第四季度开始,金融系统性风险有下降趋势。
By adopting the step by step regression method to establish the optimal prediction equation for financial systemic risks, this paper tries to construct a reasonable and practical indicator system for the early warning of financial systemic risks, with China＇s financial pressure index made up of synchronized variables of the financial systemic risks as the explained variables and the lagged macroeconomic variables, monetary and credit variables, asset prices variables, as well as the macroe- conomic variables of the related economic super powers as the explaining variables. Then the optimal prediction equation is used to predict the financial systemic risk in 2010 in China. The predicted results indicate that during the first three quarters the financial systemic risks are on the rise, higher than the highest value in 2008; from the fourth quarter, a downward trend of the financial systemic risks can be found.
出处
《江西财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第2期5-11,共7页
Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(08BJY145)
关键词
金融系统性风险
最佳预测方程
预警指标体系
financial systemic risks
optimal prediction equation
early warning indicator system
