摘要
天然气可采储量是一个非常重要的指标，尤其在还未决定是否进行勘探开发时。因为决策者们通常依据此数据的大小作出是否开发此区域以及开发规模。同时可采储量又是后续评价工作的基础数据之一，其准确性如何，直接影响到评价结果的正确程度。所以在有关资料和信息都很有限的情况下如何开展天然气可采储量估算工作，为决策者提供有效、可靠的数据是急需解决的问题。文章尝试从概率论的基础理论———中心极限定理出发，结合用容积法估算天然气可采储量的计算公式，通过严格的数学证明和推导，得出了天然气可采储量的一种区间估算方法，以及计算其最小值和最大值的公式，从而弥补了一点估计带来的估算不准确和一系列问题，提高了估算的准确程度。然后通过实例计算，进一步说明了这种方法的简捷性、实用性和有效性。
Recoverable gas reserve is a very important factor especially while the decision,on whether the exploration and development works will be carried out,can′t be made,becaus,depending on the factor,the police makers will make a decision on whether the area will be put into development and its development scale.Meanwhile,the recoverable reserve is also one of the basic data on successive works,so its accuracy will directly influence the correctness of evaluated results.It is a problem eager to be solved to carry out the work of estimating the recoverable gas reserves to provide effective and reliable data for the police makers under the circumstances of less reference materials and information.According to the basic probility theory—central limit theorem and in combination with the volumetric method formular of estimating recoverable gas reserves,an interval estimation method of recoverable gas reserves and the formulars of estimating their minimum and maximum values are achieved in the paper through strictly mathematical justification and derivation,thus remedying the error and a series of problems made up by one point method estimation and raising the accuracy of the estimation.Through calculating an example it is further indicated that this method is simple,direct,practical and effective..
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1999年第6期40-43,共4页
Natural Gas Industry
关键词
天然气
可采储量
中心极限
容积法
方差
估算法
Natural gas,Recoverable reserve,Central limit theorem,Volumetric method,Variance
