摘要
在建立区域AREM模式增长模繁殖(Breeding of Growing Modes,BGM)集合预报系统的基础上,设计了静态扰动(初始随机扰动、扰动限定)和动态扰动方法,利用2008年7月20日强降水个例,分析了不同类型扰动对强降水预报的影响。结果表明,静态和动态扰动都对中尺度暴雨预报具有积极的作用,扰动都不同程度地减少了漏报率。两种静态扰动对预报的改善集中在24 h降水预报,动态扰动则对24 h和48 h降水预报都有不同程度的改进。两种静态扰动的区域性降水空报率、漏报率相同,而动态扰动的区域性强降水漏报率低于静态扰动,同时,区域性强降水空报率也较静态扰动略高。动态扰动一定程度地增大了集合预报的离散度。
Based on the establishing an ensemble prediction system with BGM method of the regional numerical prediction model AREM,three different perturbations,namely Initial Random Perturbation,Perturbation Restriction,which both belonging to Static State Perturbation（SSP） and Dynamic State Perturbation（DSP） are designed and carried out with a evere precipitation process happening during July 20~21,2008,in order to research the impacts of the perturbations on precipitation.The results show that both SSP and DSP play a positive role in prediction of mesoscale precipitation,such as lowering the missed rate of precipitation prediction.SSP mainly benefits 24 h prediction,while DSP could improve both 24 h and 48 h predictions.Dynamic State Perturbation could be better than two static state perturbations in correct rate of regional precipitation prediction,however,a little bit higher in failed rate at the same time.Dynamic State Perturbation enlarges on some extent disperse of the EPS,good for EPS.Therefore,Dynamic State Perturbation in regional BGM ensemble prediction system is worth researching more and deeply.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第1期94-102,共9页
Plateau Meteorology
基金
公益性行业(气象科研专项)(GYHY(QX)2007-6-12)资助
