摘要
利用1961～2000年中国大部分省区(香港、澳门、台湾、海南地区数据暂缺)194个气象站点逐日降水量、气温和相对湿度数据,通过克里格插值、Hopfield神经网络聚类以及方差分析,对中国气候变化的时空特征进行分析。分析结果表明:中国以增温为主导趋势,其次是多雨趋势;东部地区出现变干趋势,而西部地区在逐渐增湿;对3种要素进行聚类分析,并利用方差分析检验差异性是否显著,最后分析了聚类结果变化趋势,结果与插值分析一致,说明克里格插值结果的可信性。表明在全球增温的驱动下,中国气候变化格局处于调整状态,湿润地区干旱化,干旱地区变得湿润。
Using the daily precipitation,temperature and relative humidity data of 194 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2000 in China（not including Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan and Hainan）,based on the Spatial Kriging interpolation method in ArcGIS,and through the cluster of Hopfield neural networks as well as analysis of variance,the spatial and temporal characteristics of climate change in China.The results show that a dominant trend of warming occurrs in China,followed by the wet trend,drying trend occurrs in the eastern region,while the western region is gradually humidifying.Judging from the decadal results,we got that there was an equal trend between the trend of dry cooling and wet humid heat from 1960 to 1969;dry-type distribution from 1970 to 1979 was very broad,almost throughout the country;climate change types presented a layered distribution from 1980 to 1989,and according to the main types,warming trend was in the leading position;from 1990 to 2000,warming trend still dominated,followed by drying trend.We conducted clustering analysis using Hopfield neural network method,and test whether differences among the three kinds of climatic factors are significant using analysis of variance.In the final,according to the clustering results,we have analyzed the trend of precipitation,temperature and relative humidity change,results in line with interpolation show the space Kriging credibility.The results show that,driven by global warming,patterns of climate change in China is in a state of adjustment,and humid regions become arid,whereas arid regions humid.
出处
《地理科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第2期211-217,共7页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(2009JJD770025)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助
