摘要
天气是影响机场容量下降的主要因素,为了反映预测天气对容量的影响,建立了n-阶段到达容量分布模型。通过天气类型决策树将历史天气数据转换为每种天气类型的到达容量概率分布。根据天气类型的容量概率分布,用全概公式将概率天气预测转换为概率容量预测。基于5年的机场小时天气数据,对某一日的预测天气进行算例仿真,得到了一组基于预测天气的n-阶段容量概率分布。结果表明,n-阶段容量分布模型能够将机场不同时段的预测恶劣天气转换为预测随机容量,从而满足实时流量管理的需要。
Weather is a major factor causing airport capacity reduction.To reflect the impact of the weather on capacity,the n-phase arrival capacity distribution model is established.The historical weather data are translated into the capacity probability distribution for each weather type through weather type decision tree.According to the capacity probability distribution of each weather type,the probabilistic weather forecasts are translated into probabilistic capacity forecasts by using total probability formula.Weather forecasts of a day are simulated according to the 5-year airport hourly data,and a set of the n-phase arrival capacity distribution based on the weather forecasts is obtained.Simulation results indicate that inclement weather forecasts at different time can be translated into a set of stochastic capacity forecasts,which thus meeting the needs of the real time traffic flow management.
出处
《南京航空航天大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第1期41-48,共8页
Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics
基金
国家自然科学基金(60972006)资助项目
关键词
空中交通管理
机场容量
天气
决策树
容量概率分布
air traffic management
airport capacity
weather
decision tree
capacity probabilistic distribution
