摘要
建立柯布道格拉斯城市规模产出效应面板模型,对1994—2007年全国30个主要城市的规模产出效应进行了实证研究,研究表明,城市规模对产出有显著性影响,城市规模产出效应中包含显著的时间影响和地区影响。包含时间影响的变截距模型显示,城市规模产出弹性为0.128,时间影响系数由1994年的-0.652单调增加到2007年的0.615,说明城市规模产出效应、资源使用效率和城市化质量逐步提高;包含地区影响的变系数模型表明,城市规模对产出影响中存在显著的固定水平效应和增长效应,水平效应在-13.569和17.140之间,增长效应在0.438和5.0之间。研究结果同时显示,规模越大的城市通常具有更高的水平效应,但是增长效应却越低,这表明可能存在适度的最优城市规模。
A Cobb-Douglas panel mode of city size-return is established to study the scale-output effects of 30 major cities of China during 1994--2007. The empirical results show that the city size has significant effect on the city output, and significant time effect and individual effect are found in city size-return effects. The individualmean corrected regression panel model with time effect shows that the city size-return elasticity is 0. 128, and the coefficients of time effect have increased monotonously from 0. 652 in 1994 to 0. 615 in 2007. It shows that the quality of urbanization process is enhancing significantly with city scale economy and the growth of resource utiliza- tion efficiency. The unrestricted model with individual regional-effect shows that during the city size-return effect there are significant level effect and growth effect. The number of the level effect coefficient is distributed in - 13. 569 to 17.14, the growth effect coefficient in 0. 438 to 5.0. The results also indicate that cities with larger size usually have higher level effect of size-return, however with lower growth effect, which suggests that there is possibly moderate and optimal city size.
出处
《地域研究与开发》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第1期46-50,共5页
Areal Research and Development
基金
2010年江苏省社科联基金项目(10-C-25)
