摘要
依据漳河水库1963～2008年入库径流资料,利用法对其未来变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:①H<0.5,即入库径流过去的一个增长或减少趋势意味着将来的一个减少或增长趋势,未来年径流量可能呈现持续下降的趋势;②1995年为流域径流系列的突变点,对前后两个序列的特征值进行统计分析,均具有明显的差异,已经不符合"一致性"的要求;③流域人类活动日趋频繁,使得流域下垫面条件发生了较大的变化,对于漳河水库入库径流量变化有较大的影响。
Based on runoff data from 1963 to 2008 in Zhanghe Reservoir,the changing trend in the future is analyzed by means of the method of R/S analysis.The results show that： ①When H0.5,inflow runoff having an increase or decrease trend in the past means a decrease or increase trend in the future,and the annual runoff in the future may show a continuous decline trend;②The aberrance year of the runoff sequence was 1995.There are significant differences between the statistical eigenvalues of the two sequences divided by 1995.It does not meet the consistency requirement;③More frequently human activities have changed the underlying surface condition greatly and have a great influence on Zhanghe Reservoir inflow runoff.
出处
《水利科技与经济》
2010年第12期1384-1387,共4页
Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy
