摘要
为了综合考虑气象对负荷的影响,本文引入了生物气象学中的实感温度、寒冷指数、温湿指数、舒适度4个指标来量化气象因素的综合影响。将原始负荷序列进行小波去噪,及对负荷变化率进行离散化处理后,通过ID3算法生成负荷预测决策树模型,在得到实感温度、寒冷指数、温湿指数和舒适度后对日负荷最大值进行预测。经算例证明,该模型能够满足负荷预测实用化标准的要求。
In order to consider the influence of meteorological to load,four indexes of biology meteorology,real sense,cold index,humid index and comfort index,were inducted in this paper,to scale the infection weather factors synthetically.Then the initial load was denoised by wavelet transform and discreted load variation,then the forecasting model of load decision tree was established by the ID3.After verificating example,the forecasting results meet the requirements of utility,so the daily maximum load could be forecasted.
出处
《南方电网技术》
2010年第6期98-102,共5页
Southern Power System Technology
关键词
短期负荷预测
小波去噪
生物气象指数
ID3算法
short-term load forecasting
wavelet de-noising
biological meteorological index
ID3 algorithm
