摘要
目的应用捕获-再捕获方法(CMR)评价居民死因登记报告质量,校正常规监测居民死亡率和婴儿死亡率。方法采用多阶段随机整群抽样方法,对抽取的37538户居民逐户调查人口死亡情况,再与同期监测系统所报告的死亡资料进行核对,计算漏报率以及总体死亡率95%可信区间(CI)。结果云南省国家疾病监测点居民死亡漏报率和婴儿死亡漏报率分别为19.86%和44.74%;校正报告死亡率和校正报告婴儿死亡率分别为7.04‰和32.29‰;估计总体死亡率和总体婴儿死亡率95%CI分别为6.89‰～7.18‰和23.02‰～41.57‰。结论使用捕获-再捕获方法可以校正低估的全死因死亡率和婴儿死亡率,适时开展漏报调查,是有效弥补常规监测不足的方法之一。
Objective The Capture-Recapture Method（CMR）was employed to assess the quality of death cause report and revise the routine monitoring of resident mortality and infant mortality.Methods The death cause of family members among 37,538 families was surveyed through the Multiphase Random Cluster Sampling Survey.The results were compared with the data from the Death Cause Surveillance System in the same period.The missing report Rate and 95% Confidence Interval（95%CI）of total mortality were computed.Results The missing report rate of resident death and infant death of the sentinel sites of the national disease surveillance in Yunnan Province were 19.86%,44.74%,respectively.The revised report death rate and revised report infant death rate were7.04‰,32.29‰,respectively.95% CI of the estimated total death rate and estimated total infant death rate were 6.89‰-7.18‰,23.02‰-41.57‰,respectively.Conclusions The total death cause mortality and infant mortality will be undervalued if the only source of information was from the death materials reported by the routine surveillance system.However,on the ground of the routine surveillance and information of the missing report survey,the use of CMR may revise the undervalued total death cause mortality and infant mortality.Therefore,the implementation of the timely survey of the missing report and the scientific method to obtain revised data of resident death would be the effective supplementary method for the routine surveillance.
出处
《公共卫生与预防医学》
2010年第6期12-14,共3页
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
关键词
捕获-再捕获方法
死亡率
婴儿死亡率
漏报率
Capture-recapture Method
Mortality
Infant Mortality
Missing report rate
