摘要
运用经济学和灰色系统理论,探讨了矿产资源规划中供需形势分析的方法论。研究表明,矿产资源需求受社会系统中众多因素的影响,且影响的方式具有灰色特征,故需求预测可合理地运用灰色系统模型;矿产资源供给虽然也受许多社会因素的影响,影响方式也具灰色特征,但是矿产资源规划中的供给预测不能运用灰色系统模型,因为它所依据的系统特征数据序列恰恰是矿产资源规划的结果;矿产资源的供给预测可用基于供给函数分析的经验法或剔除新增采矿权对系统特征数据序列所作贡献的灰色系统预测法。
The thesis studies the methodology for analyzing supply and demand situation in mineral resources planning with the help of economics and grey system theory.The study reveals that the demands of mineral resources are affected by many factors in social system,and its ways are of grey system characteristics.Therefore,the demands of mineral resources can be rightly predicted through the models of grey system.The supplies of mineral resources are also affected by a lot of factors in social system,and the ways are also of grey system characteristics.But the supply predictions in mineral resources planning cannot be made with the model of grey system because datum sequence of system characteristics is the foundation of supply prediction,which was the result of mineral resources planning.However,the supply predictions of mineral resources can be made by empirical method based on the analysis of supply function or by prediction method of grey system based on datum sequence of system characteristics,which can get rid of the contribution of newly-increased rights for exploitation.
出处
《长安大学学报（社会科学版）》
2010年第4期117-122,共6页
Journal of Chang'an University(Social Science Edition)
关键词
矿产资源
供需形势
灰色系统预测模型
方法论
mineral resource
supply and demand situation
prediction model of grey system
methodology
