摘要
以道孚、绰斯甲、足木足水文站1960～2000年的同步天然年径流量系列为基础,应用Copula方法构造了南水北调西线一期工程调水河流之间的径流联合分布模型,具体分析了鲜水河、绰斯甲河、足木足河这3条调水河流之间实施补偿调度的概率。结果表明:鲜水河与足木足河之间实施补偿调度的可能性最大,绰斯甲河与足木足河之间实施补偿调度的可能性次之,鲜水河与绰斯甲河之间实施补偿调度的可能性最小,其概率分别为43.74%、38.84%和25.82%。
Based on the synchronous natural annual runoff time series from 1960 to 2000 at Daofu,Chuosijia,Zumuzu gauges,Copula method was applied to construct the runoff joint distribution models between the water transfer rivers in the area of First Phase Project of Western Route of South to North Water Transfer Project,and then the probabilities of compensatory operations between the rivers were thoroughly analyzed.The results show that among all the three probabilities of compensatory operations between the rivers,the largest was between Xianshui River and Zumuzu River,the second was between Chuosijia River and Zumuzu River and the smallest was between Xianshui River and Chuosijia River,wich were 43.74%,38.84% and 25.82% respectively.
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第1期48-52,共5页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
国家自然科学基金(50879051)
关键词
南水北调
西线一期工程
调水河流
补偿调度
频率
COPULA
South to North Water Transfer Project
First Phase Project of Western Route
water transfer river
compensatory operation
probability
Copula
