摘要
在对货运周转量的增长率、GDP增长率的分析基础上,选取了我国1953年至2007年的实际数据。为了探究五种运输方式与GDP间系统的关联,对6个变量建立向量自回归模型并进行协整检验;确定协整个数后建立误差修正模型并在此基础上进行了方差分解分析;全面、多层次地探究了6个变量间的长期均衡与短期波动关系。获知GDP及水路货运长期来看不会受到其它变量的显著影响,但GDP与铁路,公路对航空货运存在长期的协整关系。
To investigate the relationship between GDP and the five means of transportation in China,the paper establishes a vector auto-regression model on the basis of relevant data from 1953 to 2007 and carries out the co-integration check,from where an error correcing model is established and the variance analysis is conducted.Using the model,the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation between the involved variables are studied comprehensively and on multiple levels.It is found that the relation between GDP and waterway transportation will not be,in the long term,affected by other variables in any significant manner,whereas there exists between GDP and railway transportation as well as between highway and airway transportation the relationship of long-term co-integration.
出处
《物流技术》
2010年第20期29-32,45,共5页
Logistics Technology
关键词
运输方式
货运周转量
协整关系
transport means
freight turnover
co-integration
