摘要
随着货币供给内生性日趋增强,发达国家业已放弃货币总量指标作为货币政策中介目标。这反映出货币乘数论的前提条件已大大弱化,那么,货币乘数是否真的失效?本文从货币乘数论的起源、作用和面临的挑战入手,认为货币乘数的本质是描述货币创造的基本机制,金融市场和金融创新的发展确实弱化了货币乘数论的基础,狭义的货币乘数论随着现代货币创造机制的复杂性逐步失效,狭义的货币乘数已不复存在,而在更加广义的货币乘数和更加复杂的货币创造机制下,中央银行面临着巨大挑战。中央银行只有与其他监管部门配合,才能控制货币供给总量,增强货币政策执行效果。
The monetary aggregates have been abandoned as the intermediate target of monetary policy with the strengthening endogeneity of money supply. Therefore, the premise of monetary multiplier theory is weakened. Does the monetary multiplier become inefficient？ Does it still exist？ Based on the analysis of the origin, function and the challenge of the monetary multiplier theory, this article brings forward that the nature of the theory is to describe the basic money-creating mechanism, but the development of the financial markets and financial innovations has weakened the theory. Therefore, the monetary multiplier theory in narrow sense doesn＇t exist any longer along with the complexity of modem money-creating mechanism. However, the theory in broad sense still exists. The increasingly complicated money-creating mechanism has posed great challenge to the central banks. That means the central banks could no longer completely control the monetary aggregates and strengthen the effect of monetary policy unless they cooperate with other regulators.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第1期16-25,共10页
Studies of International Finance
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“中国货币供应机制与未来通货膨胀风险研究:理论、实践与政策(项目编号:09&ZD036)”的支持,为子课题一“中国货币统计、储备货币和货币政策”的阶段性成果
关键词
货币乘数
基础货币
预测
货币创造
Money Multiplier
Money Base
Predict
Money-creating
