摘要
综合运用建国60年以来的人口自然变动以及生育和死亡转变的数据,从实证研究的角度通过聚类分析刻画我国省级人口转变在时间和空间上的演变进程。时间序列聚类的结果表明,各省的生育率、死亡率和人口自然变动的转变过程具有不同步性,转变模式各具特色;而多时点连续聚类的结果充分体现了我国省级人口转变在空间上的扩散过程和在时间上的推移过程,以及省级人口转变趋同的速度不断加快的特点。此外,对省级人口转变和社会经济发展进程一致性的比较,反映出两者既有一致性也有非一致性,社会经济发展对省级人口转变时空演变进程有一定的影响,但非决定性影响。
Using the data of demographic transition on provincial level from 1949 to 2008, we try to draw a picture of time and space diffusion process of provincial demographic transition in China by cluster analysis. Then we find the cluster analysis of time series data indicates the fertility transition, mortality transition and the transition of natural increase are not at the same pace, and they have different transition modes. Besides, the cluster analysis of time point data demonstrates provincial demographic transition diffuses in space and has time lag, and the pace of provincial demographic transition converges more and more quickly. Meanwhile, we test the consistency of provincial demographic transition and provincial economic development, and we find that both the consistency and non -consistency exist in the different provinces, and the economic development isn＇t the determined factor of provincial demographic transition.
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第1期16-23,共8页
Population Journal
基金
国家教育部人文社科研究基地重大课题:中国人口转变道路的理论研究(05JJD840146)
关键词
省级人口转变
时空演变
聚类分析
社会经济发展
provincial demographic transition, time and space diffusion, cluster analysis, social economic development
