摘要
自2001年以来,经常项目账户和资本与金融项目账户顺差的指数型增长将我国推向了全球国际收支平衡问题的风口浪尖。在国际金融危机频发、跨境流动资金波动剧烈的背景下,我国反常顺差所具有的潜在风险非常值得关注。鉴于此,文章的研究重点在于:(1)采用涉及27个国家股票市场的数据,构建并计算了反映国际投资者情绪变化的风险偏好指数;(2)将国际市场投资者情绪等因素纳入分析框架,实证分析了影响国际资金在我国跨境流动的驱动因素,以辨别跨境资金中的不稳定成分,并给出相应的政策建议。
With rapid growth of current account surplusand capital and financial account surplus since 2001,China attracts the world＇s attention and sparks a controversy.In the environment of frequent international financial crises and wide fluctuations of cross-border capital flow,the potential risk of abnormal surplus problem in China is very worthy of our attention.The contribution of this paper is shown as follows： first,on the basis of the data of stock markets in 27 countries,this paper constructs and calculates risk preference index which reflects changes in international investors＇ sentiment;secondly,by introducing international investors＇ sentiment and other factors into the analytical framework,this paper makes an empirical study on the factors influencing the cross-border flow of international funds in China,and provides corresponding policy recommendation.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第1期59-67,144,共10页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社科基金重大项目(08-ZD036)
上海市哲学社会科学2010年度规划课题
上海市教委2010年度科研创新项目
上海财经大学211第三期项目的资助
关键词
国际收支
投机资金
市场情绪
非理性因素
balance of payments
speculative funds
market sentiment
irrational factor
