摘要
为探讨黄土丘陵区的土地利用变化规律以及驱动机制,以罗玉沟流域作为典型流域,基于1986、2001年的TM影像为数据源,对土地利用格局分布进行分析,并运用CA-Markov模型,以2001年的土地利用格局为基础,预测了2016年流域的土地利用的空间格局分布。结果表明,罗玉沟流域土地利用格局在1986年以前,以坡耕地为主,面积占59.67%,其次为梯田、草地和林地。从1986年到2001年林地和梯田的面积均有显著增加,坡耕地面积则显著减少,其余土地利用类型面积变化不大。从单一土地利用类型动态度来看,面积增加大的土地类型同时具有较高的动态度,梯田的动态度最大达到了15.09,林地的动态度次之。CA-Markov模型预测结果表明2001-2016年期间土地利用变化继续保持1986-2001年间的变化趋势,总体上表现为坡耕地减少,林地和梯田增加,但坡耕地的减少速率却明显小于1986-2001年,这主要是由于剩余的坡耕地受立地条件、政策措施等一系列的因素的影响。其他土地类型之间的相互转化,面积较小,基本处于比较稳定的动态变化之中。根据模拟结果可调整各类土地利用/覆被格局,为该区土地利用规划、管理和生态恢复提供科学依据。
To explore the law of land use change and driving mechanism in loess hilly region,based on Landsat TM remote sensing images in 1986 and 2001,distributions of land use patterns were analyzed,and distribution of land use spatial patterns in 2016 had been forecast by using the CA-Markov model. The results showed that land use structure was mainly dominated by slope land before 1986,which occupied 59.67% of the total area,secondly was terrace,grassland and forest. The forest land and the terrace had increased obviously from 1986 to 2001,while slope land reduced evidently,and other land uses had no changes. With regard to single land use type dynamic,the land use type that increased markedly in area had high dynamic degree simultaneously,therefore,the dynamic degree of terrace was the biggest,which achieved to 15.09,the second was forest land. By using CA-Markov model,the predictive results indicated that the land use changes during 2001–2016 period were similar to that during 1986–2001,that is,in general slope farmland would continue to reduce in some degree,while forest land and terrace kept increasing,but the slope farmland reduced slowly compared to that from 1986 to 2001. This is mainly because other slope farmland are restricted by a series factors such as site conditions and the special policies,with regard to other land uses,the mutual conversions present a stable dynamic change for their relatively small area. Land use and land cover pattern can be adjusted according to the simulation results,which may serve as a scientific basis for land planning and management.
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第11期297-303,共7页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(40871136)
