摘要
对农业干旱风险致险性、脆弱性及损失模型等方面进行了深入系统的回顾与评述,阐述了农业干旱风险研究的前沿领域和学术问题,展望了农业干旱风险未来的发展趋势:农业干旱致险性评估的关键是构建合适的干旱指标,目前干旱评估指标很多,大致可分为水分变异程度指标、干旱发展过程指标和干旱空间差异指标三类,但多数指标对农业干旱成灾过程反映不足,在评估方法上对农业干旱灾害机理认识不深入,成为了农业致险性评估的瓶颈;农业干旱脆弱性通常决定着农业干旱风险的高低,其中,灌溉能力、技术、资金等是影响农业脆弱性高低的重要因子,而定量刻画农业干旱脆弱性对政策、技术、保险等人文因素的响应是当前研究的薄弱环节;农业干旱风险损失评估模型较多,但由于受区域、人为等因素影响,多数模型普适性较差。因此,未来农业干旱风险评估需要深入认识农业干旱影响的机理和过程,突出研究农业干旱脆弱性对人文因素变化的响应,并通过区间合作来进一步改进风险损失模型。
Review and discussion were made on the progress of agricultural drought risk assessment on three aspects： drought severity,drought vulnerability and models of risks assessment,with a focus on revealing the front issues and development trends of agro-drought risk assessment.It is concluded that to construct suitable indexes was the key in the assessment of drought severity.The recent indexes of agro-drought may be classified into three types： the indexes of moisture variation degree,the indexes of drought developing process,and the indexes of drought spatial difference.But most of these indexes could not fully reveal the developing process of drought disasters or deeply explore the mechanism of drough,which became bottlenecks in the assessment of drought severity.Agro-drought vulnerability dominated the degree of agro-drought risks.Factors of irrigation,technology,capital,etc,played important roles in affecting agro-drought vulnerability.Yet,it was a weak link in recent researches to quantify the response of agro-drought vulnerability to human factor such as policy,technology, insurance,etc.There were many assessment models on agricultural drought risks,but most of them couldn＇t be generally applied because of certain limitative factors,such as regional or human factors.Therefore,agricultural drought risk assessment in the future should be focused on the mechanism and process of agro-drought,emphasizing the responses of agro-drought vulnerability to the change of human factors,and improving models of agro-drought risk assessment through regional cooperation.
出处
《干旱地区农业研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第6期263-270,共8页
Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-315-4)
国家科技支撑计划重大项目(2008BAk50B06)
湖北省高等学校优秀中青年科技创新团队资助计划项目(T200708)
湖北省自然科学基金资助项目(2006BAB15B02)
关键词
农业干旱风险
干旱致险性
承灾体脆弱性
agro-drought risk
drought severity
hazard-bearing bodies＇ vulnerability
