摘要
本文使用国际上较为成熟的测量方法,系统地计算了60年来中国总人口惯性、城乡人口惯性和分年龄人口惯性的变化和趋势。得出重要结论:第一,中国人口正增长的人口惯性作用正在逐渐消失;第二,中国城镇处于人口正负惯性的转折点,而中国人口的惯性增长完全来自农村;第三,中国人口惯性增长将突出表现为老年组人口规模大幅度的增长。
This paper calculates total population momentum,urban and rural population momentum and age-specific population momentum in China since 60 years.The main findings and conclusions are as follows：Firstly,the power of population momentum of the positive growth is disappearing rapidly;Secondly,the cities are in the turning point of population momentum from positive to the negative growth while China＇s population growth was wholly attributable to momentum in the rural areas;Thirdly,China＇s population momentum of positive growth mainly is due to substantial growth of the old.
出处
《人口与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第6期1-6,共6页
Population & Economics
关键词
人口惯性
生育
死亡
population momentum
fertility
death
