摘要
以武汉市区为例,采用Mann-Kendall趋势分析法与R/S分析法研究了1951-2009年月降水序列、年降水序列特征及趋势检验,并预测了未来降水量。结果表明,月降水序列中1、2、7、11月呈上升趋势,仅1、3月变化趋势显著;年降水序列上升趋势不明显,降水时间序列具有分形特征和长程相关性,可为降水中长期预测和水资源合理利用提供参考。
In this paper,the Mann-Kendall trend and rescaled range analysis（R/S） method are adopted to study the characteristics and trend of monthly and annual precipitation series from 1951 to 2009 years in Wuhan City area.And then the future precipitation is forecasted.The results show that the series of monthly precipitation have increased in January,February,July and November;the change trends are significant only in January and March;the series of annual precipitation has increased but not obvious,which has fractal property and long-range correlation.Thus,it provides reference for the medium-long term precipitation prediction and rational utilization of water resources.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2010年第12期4-5,159,共3页
Water Resources and Power
