摘要
根据乌鲁木齐市中心气象站1951～2008年的气温资料,采用气候倾向率、R/S分析法及Mann-Kendall方法进行变化趋势以及突变检验。结果表明,58年来乌鲁木齐市年平均最低(最高)气温均呈明显的上升趋势,其中增温最为明显的最低气温升温率达0.57℃/10a;季节的增温趋势出现了非对称性,其中,冬季的增温幅度最大。R/S分析表明,乌鲁木齐市气温存在着Hurst现象,即在未来的一段时间内,气温仍然保持着上升趋势。利用Mann-Kendall对年平均温度进行突变检验,结果表明乌鲁木齐市气温突变的时间为1994年。
Based on temperature data from the weather station in Urumqi in 1951-2008,the change trend and abrupt change test were analyzed by means of climatic trend rate,R/S analysis method and Mann-Kendall method. The results showed that there was an obvious increase in annual mean temperature in Urumqi from 1951 to 2008,as well as the annual mean minimum and maximum temperature,especially annual mean minimum temperature with rising rate of 0.57 ℃/10a. Meanwhile,with the asymmetry seasonal variation,the temperature increase was the highest in winter. R/S analysis method showed that temperature in Urumqi had evident Hurst phenomena,and it showed that temperature maintained increasing trend in future. In addition,abrupt change test of annual mean temperature was carried out by means of Mann-kendall,and the result indicated that abrupt change test of temperature in Urumqi occurred in 1994.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2010年第30期17155-17157,17161,共4页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
