摘要
基于汇率传递模型(Shintani等,2009),文章分析了通货膨胀环境因素对汇率传递的影响机制;同时,对上述理论模型加以拓展,证明了在通货膨胀环境影响下,汇率变动对消费者价格传递效应具有非线性平滑变化特征。文章接下来运用非线性平滑转换STR模型实证分析的结果表明:(1)在较低且稳定的通货膨胀环境下,汇率传递效应较低,在较高且不稳定的通货膨胀环境下,汇率传递效应较高;(2)随着通货膨胀环境的变化,汇率传递弹性在-0.136^-0.049之间非线性平滑变化,汇率传递变化幅度较大,因此需重视通货膨胀环境因素对汇率传递的影响。
Based on the theoretical model of exchange rate pass-through raised by Shintani et al in 2009,the paper explains the impact of inflationary environment on exchange rate pass-through,develops the model and proves the non-linear and smooth change of the impact of exchange rate pass-through on consumer prices comprehensively.Then,it makes an empirical analysis by using STR model and the results show as follows：firstly,while the inflationary environment is lower and more stable,the exchange rate pass-through is lower,and while the inflationary environment is higher and less stable,the exchange rate pass-through is higher;secondly,with changes of the inflationary environment,it varies from-0.136 to-0.049 smoothly and nonlinearly,which means there is a relatively large change in exchange rate pass-through,so we should pay attention to the impact of the inflationary environment on exchange rate pass-through.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第11期51-61,82,共12页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70772114)
浙江省科技计划项目(2008C25036)
关键词
汇率传递
通货膨胀环境
STR模型
非线性
exchange rate pass-through
inflationary environment
STR model
nonlinearity
