摘要
通过建立向量自回归模型,运用格兰杰因果分析方法和协整分析方法对于山东省城市化和能源消耗量之间的长短期关系进行了实证分析,并利用因素分解模型对城市化所引起的能源消耗变动的贡献份额进行了定量测算。实证结果表明,山东省城市化水平提高是导致能源消费量增长的格兰杰因果原因,而山东省能源消费增长却不是城市化水平提高的格兰杰因果原因,二者之间存在单向的格兰杰因果联系。山东省城市化和能源消耗量之间不仅存在着单向的格兰杰因果联系,并且存在着协整关系,但是这种长期动态均衡的短期误差修正作用并不很强,能源消耗量的增长率变动除了受城市化水平影响之外,还同时受到其他多种因素的影响;现阶段城市化因素对山东省能源消费总量的贡献份额尚比较小,且有逐年下降的趋势。因此,能源需求不会成为制约山东省城市化进程的瓶颈,目前应该加快推进有助于资源节约型的城市化进程模式。
Based on the Vector Auto-Regression model,this paper applies Granger casuality model and co-intergration analysis to test the dynamic correlations between urbanization and energy consumption in Shandong Province.Meanwhile,it also calculates the contribution of urbanization to the change of energy consumption by the factor decomposition model.The empirical results show that the level of urbanization is the Granger casuality to the energy consumption,but the energy consumption is not the Granger casuality to the level of urbanization for Shandong Province.There is not only a one-way Granger relationship but also a long-term relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in Shandong Province.However,the role of correction is not prominent in the short-term,many other factors also affect the growth rate of energy consumption besides the urbanization.At the present stage,the contribution of urbanization to the energy consumption is small,and its trend is decreasing.Therefore,the energy demand will not restrict the urbanization process in Shandong Province,and it is urgent to accelerate the resource-saving urbanization for reducing the energy consumption.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第11期19-24,共6页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
supported by the Academy of Korean Studies Grant funded by the Korean Government(AKS-2009-MB-2002)
关键词
城市化
能源消耗
协整分析
因素分解模型
urbanization
energy consumption
co-intergration analysis
factor decomposition model
