摘要
从风险分析角度分析台风灾害给渔业造成的影响。首先应用风险分析模型,从灾损度、脆弱度及防灾系数3方面定性分析了台风灾害对渔业的影响。研究对象为宁波、舟山的渔业。在收集相关数据后,应用模糊综合评判模型分别计算出宁波、舟山10个区(县)的灾损度、脆弱度以及防灾系数并制成台风灾害综合评判表,应用SPSS软件的聚类分析功能对宁波、舟山10个区(县)进行聚类分析。取组间距离为10,将数据分为3类:舟山4县为第1类,受台风灾害影响最大;奉化,宁海、象山为第2类,受台风影响次之;宁波市区、慈溪市,余姚市为第3类,受台风影响最小。最后结合这几个地区实际情况,分析了聚类分析结果的原因。
In order to provide useful and scientific information for the establishment of government leading fishery insurance, this paper analyses the impact of typhoon disaster on fishery industry in the view of risk management. Firstly, the risk analyzing model was used to qualitatively analyze the impact of typhoon from the aspects of hazard, frangibility and recoverability. The risk analyzing model was con- structed based on the definition of risk which was defined by Blaikie and other scientists where the risk is the result of the coupling of hazard, frangibility and recoverability. The studied areas covered by this paper included 10 districts （countries） which belong to Ningbo and Zhoushan. After collecting all the necessary data, the method of fuzzy integrated judging model was used to figure out the values of hazard, frangibility and, recoverability of the 10 districts （countries）, and then a typhoon disaster integrated judging table was made. After all, the clustering analyzing function of SPSS software was applied to analyze the 10 districts （countries）. In this study, the group distance is set to 10. The data were classified into three different groups： the first group was the four districts （counties） in Zhoushan where the typhoon influences this group greatly. The second group was Fenghua, Ning- hal and Xiangshan. Typhoon influences this group not as serious as the first group. The third group is the urban areas of Ningbo, Cixi and Yuyao. This group is seldom badly impacted By typhoon disaster. In the final section of this article, several reasons based on the real situation of Ningbo and Zhoushan are given in response to the clustered analytical result.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期208-212,共5页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
上海海洋大学上海高等教育"085"工程建设项目(A-2401-07-0293)
关键词
农业其他学科
模糊数学
台风灾害
渔业
风险区划
other disciplines of orgriculture
fuzzy math method
typhoon disaster
fishery
risk zoning
