摘要
分析了松嫩草地４０余年气温、降水的变化，评估了这些变化对土壤水分及草地生产力的影响。继而根据大气环流模式ＣＯ２倍增“平衡试验”结果评估了未来大气ＣＯ２加倍条件下降水、气温的变化对松嫩草地土壤水分及草地生产力可能产生的影响。
In this paper, temperature changes and precipitation fluctuations over Songnen Steppe since are analyzed 1953. Based on a soil water balance model and a climate yield empirical model, the impacts of recent forty years and future changes of temperature and precipitation on soil water and grassland productivity are estimated. Over forty years, winter and spring temperature have increased by 2.0℃ or so; autumn and annual temperature have increased about 1.0℃; summer temperature increased by 0.2℃. There is not a trend in precipitation changes. The impacts of temperature increase since 1953 on soil water and grass yield are small, the changes of soil water and grass yield are mainly dependent on precipitation changes. In CO 2 doubling situation, according to GISS and GFDL GCMS outputs, temperature will increase by 3-6℃ and precipitation increase about 10% over Songnen Steppe. Such changes in temperature and precipitation will result in soil water decrease every month, while evapotranspiration will increase during rain season. Grass yield will decrease by 3%-4%.
出处
《地理科学》
CSCD
北大核心
1999年第3期220-224,共5页
Scientia Geographica Sinica
基金
国家教委草原生态建设项目
关键词
气候变化
土壤水分
草地生产力
松嫩草地
Climate change
Soil water
Glassland productivity
Songnen Steppe
