摘要
根据灰色预测理论，本文针对短期供热负荷变化的季节性与周期性的特点，提出了一套负荷预测方法—改进灰色拓扑预测方法，采用关联度来选择建模数列，并运用非唯一性原理解释了预测失效点，最后成功地对某热电厂短期负荷的未来值进行了全波形预测。
According to Grey Forecasting theory,this paper presents a set of forecasting method aiming at the seasonal and periodical characteristic of short term heating load-Improved Grey Topology Method. It can automatically select a forecasting model with the help of Grey Relation Degree. On the base of Non-uniqueness theory, the gives an explanation of null forecasting points and successfully applies to predict the fluctuating trend of short term heating load.
出处
《煤气与热力》
1999年第3期51-54,共4页
Gas & Heat
基金
国家自然科学基金
