摘要
采用Kernel密度估计和马尔科夫链分析方法,并在分析框架中引入空间因素,分析中国省际国内旅游和入境旅游发展演进的时空动态变化特征。从时间动态性的视角看,中国省际国内旅游和入境旅游的发展演进均存在俱乐部收敛趋势,广大的旅游低收入地区与少数的旅游高收入地区长期并存;从空间动态性的视角看,近邻效应对国内旅游和入境旅游的发展演进都有一定影响,部分地区向邻区的平均发展水平演进。但是无论从时间还是空间动态角度,国内旅游和入境旅游的演变趋势都不尽相同。
Based on Kernel density estimates and Markov Chains methods,by introducing spatial factors into the analysis framework,China＇s provincial internal and inbound tourism development（1999-2008） dynamics are studied.The results from temporal dynamics suggest that there is the evidence of club convergence.Majority of low-income areas of tourism and a small number of high-income areas of tourism coexist for a long time.From the spatial perspective,we find that both internal and inbound tourism regional income are partly influenced by proximity effects and there is a trend towards the development level of neighbors.But the dynamic trends of the internal and inbound tourism are not always the same.
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第10期1249-1255,共7页
Progress in Geography
基金
国家旅游局2009年规划项目(09TAAG013)
