摘要
降水是影响区域自然及经济社会变化的重要因素。本研究利用东北地区哈尔滨、长春及沈阳3站1906~2007年降水量实测资料,采用数理统计学方法,分析了东北地区近百年降水量变化的统计特征及其趋势。哈尔滨、长春、沈阳近百年平均降水量分别为544.7mm、604.0mm、709.8mm。除个别月份外,降水量的概率分布基本符合正态分布规律。在年内,1月降水量最少,占年降水量的1%;7月最多,占年降水量的26%~29%;连续最大3个月（6~8月）降水量占年降水量的62%~67%。降水量集中指数为14~18。年降水量变异系数为0.21~0.22,最大年与最小年降水量之比2.94~3.12。近百年内,降水量异常偏多年份为哈尔滨站的1932年,没有发生异常偏少的年份。长春站表现出显著的趋势性减小,哈尔滨及沈阳站未表现出显著的趋势性变化。在近百年中,1900~1935年东北为少雨期,1936~1959年为多雨期,1960年代以后则为少雨期。
Precipitation is the basic source of water resources,and it is one of the basis elements of water resources changes.Analysis of precipitation changes in the Northeast China over the past century,can provide support for local economic and social development.In this study,the annual precipitation data form 1906 to 2007 at the stations of Harbin,Changchun and Shenyang were used to analyze the statistical characteristics and trends of precipitation changes in a century in the Northeast China.The average precipitation at Harbin,Changchun and Shenyang were 544.7mm,604.0mm and 709.8mm in a century.The probability dis-tribution of precipitation is a normal distribution apart from individual month.In a year,precipitation at least in Jan,accounting for 1% of annual precipitation;the most in Jul,accounting for 26%-29% of annual precipitation;the largest consecutive three months（Jun-Aug） precipitation accounts for 62%-67% of annual precipitation.The precipitation concentration index is 14-18.The coeffi-cient of variation of annual precipitation is 0.21-0.22.The extremal ratio of annual precipitation is 2.94-3.12.In the recent 100 years,abundant precipitation anomaly occurred in 1932 at Harbin,and low precipitation anomaly did not happen.Changchun station showed a significant trend of decreasing,but there showed no significant change in trend at Harbin and Shenyang stations.In the past century in the Northeast China,1900-1935 for the drier period,1936-1959 for the rainy period,and duration after the 1960s,is drier period.
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期80-84,18,共6页
Journal of China Hydrology
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"中国主要水蚀区土壤侵蚀过程与调控研究"(2007CB407203)
中国科学院西部行动项目"黄土高原水土保持与可持续生态建设试验示范研究"(KZCX22XB2205203)
关键词
降水量
变化趋势
东北地区
precipitation
change trend
Northeast China
