摘要
在国内外已有的研究基础上,从压力—状态—响应3个方面构建了石家庄市生态安全预警评价指标体系,并基于模糊数学模型,结合EXCEL程序,建立了生态安全预警评价计算模型(FE模型)。利用所构建的指标体系及FE模型,从时间尺度上(1999—2020年)对石家庄市的生态安全预警状态进行了定量评估和动态趋势分析。结果表明,石家庄市生态安全预警综合指数从1999年的7.367(中警)降低到2008年的5.769(轻警),生态安全整体水平呈逐年上升趋势,2010,2015,2020年石家庄市的生态安全预警综合指数分别为5.324,4.959,4.742,未来近10年(2010—2020年)石家庄市的生态安全预警状态从一般逐渐过度到良好。
Based on historical research and related literature, ecological security early-warning evaluation sys- tem of the Shijiazhuang City is brought forward from three aspects of the Pressure-State-Response, and ecological security evaluation model for early-warning based on fuzzy math, combined with EXCEL procedures, which is referred to as the FE model, is set up in this paper. And then, using the index system and the FE model, from the time scales （1999--2020） ,the ecological security of Shijiazhuang City is quantitatively evaluated and analyzed for early-warning. The results show that the ecological security index for early-warning of Shijiazhuang City reduced from 7. 367 （police） in 1999 to 5. 769 （ light police） in 2008, the overall level of ecological security was an upward trend year after year, the ecological security index for early-warning of Shijiazhuang City in 2010,2015,2020 was 5. 324, 4. 959, 4.974 respectively, the state of ecological security for early-warning is gradually from general to good in the future （2010--2020）.
出处
《地域研究与开发》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第5期99-103,143,共6页
Areal Research and Development
基金
河北省自然科学基金资助项目(D2005000537)
石家庄学院自然科学基金资助项目(09ZDA002)
关键词
生态安全
指标体系
动态变化
预警机制
石家庄市
ecological security
indexes system
dynamic change
early-warning mechanism
Shijiazhuang City
