摘要
[目的]通过ARIMA模型和传递函数模型的预测精度比较找到广东省台风预测中心气压的最好方法。[方法]利用时序图和相关系数对台风的风力、最大风速和中心气压进行相关性分析,得到它们具有很强的相关性。[结果]使用台风风力和最大风速作为输入变量的传递函数模型对样本内数据具有更好的预测效果。[结论]将现代时间序列分析的理论与方法应用于气象预报具有重要的实际意义。
[Objective]This research aims to find the best method to forecast central pressure of typhoon in Guangdong province by comparing the forecast accuracy between ARIMA and Transfer Function models.[Method]The correlation of wind power,maximum wind velocity and central pressure is analyzed by using time series plot and correlation coefficient.[Result]The results show that the transfer function model which uses wind power and maximum wind velocity of typhoon could achieve better results in forecasting the sample data.[Conclusion]It is of great practical significance to apply the theory and method of modem time series analysis to weather forecating.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2010年第25期13860-13861,14000,共3页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70801025)
国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAK49B05)
