摘要
利用相关分析对大气环流特征量做因子普选,发现锡林郭勒盟冬季降水与西太平洋副热带高压具有相关性,通过距平相关和周期演变分析,最终选用了西太平洋副热带高压面积指数月平均特征量为预报因子,利用指标法预报锡林郭勒盟冬季降水,对50多年的样本个例进行拟合分析,拟合率都在70%以上,表明利用西太平洋副热带高压面积指数预报锡林郭勒盟冬季降水具有较好稳定性和准确性。
By using correlation analysis,the atmospheric circulation characteristics were selected one by one,and found that there were some correlations between precipitation and subtropical high in winter in Xilin Gol League,the monthly mean characteristics of area index of West Pacific subtropical high was used as winter rainfall characteristic factors by anomaly correlation and periodic evolving analysis,using the index method,the winter precipitation was forecasted in Xilin Gol League,the samples of more than 50 years were analyzed by fitting analysis,the fitting rate was above 70%,it showed that using area index of West Pacific subtropical high to forecasting winter precipitation of Xilin Gol League was very stability and accuracy.The correlation was discussed between winter precipitation of Xilin Gol League and the periodic law of temperature historical evolution and West Pacific subtropical high.The results showed that the periodic evolution trends to be uniform,the subtropical high was in puissant active period since 2002 years,there was less precipitation,not heavy snow disaster and slightly higher temperature in winter.
出处
《内蒙古气象》
2010年第4期20-23,共4页
Meteorology Journal of Inner Mongolia
关键词
副热带高压
冬季降水
相关分析
气候预测
subtropical high
winter precipitation
correlation analysis
climate prediction
