摘要
基于游程理论对多年持续干旱问题进行研究,通过各种游程长度的概率特征揭示了干旱发生的自然变化规律.以三门峡站和龙门站为例,根据游程理论采用直接法运用Matlab编程技术求解出各种游程长度的概率特征,其中三门峡站和龙门站发生持续干旱11 a的重现期均为1 000 a左右.实例表明,游程理论作为干旱变化规律的模型适应性强,可作为研究各种自然灾害变化规律的一种新的有效方法.
The theory based on runs for years of continuous researchs the drought problem, through a variety of runs lengths of the probability, the natural variation features of drought was revealed. As Sanmenxia and Longmen stations. An example, based on the runs theory, Matlab programming technique method was used to solve variety of runs lengths of the probability characteristics. Examples shows that the theory as a drought runs length model of adaptive variation, the return period, which Sanmenxia and Longmen stations continuous drought occurred 11 years, are about 1 000 years. The model of runs theory for the changes of the natural disasters has good fitness, and provides a new and an effective research ways.
出处
《华北水利水电学院学报》
2010年第4期10-13,共4页
North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power
关键词
随机游程检验
概率分布
概率密度
重现期
random runs test
probability distribution
probability density
return period
