摘要
基于铁路自然灾害发生的特点，在进行客观概率的估测和采用适应应答变化的指数平滑法来预测铁路受灾损失的基础上，给出风险度的确定方法，进而以划分出安全区。
Based on the characteristics of railway natural disasters, in the course of objective probability estimate and taking the suitable exponential smoothing method in forecast railway disasters loss, the approach of risk degree is made up. And further, the safety section, precautionary section and danger section are designated. On this account, the macro precaution of railway natural disaster is realized.
出处
《北方交通大学学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1999年第3期73-76,共4页
Journal of Northern Jiaotong University
关键词
铁路
自然灾害
风险度
宏观预警
railway\ natural disaster\ risk degree\ macro precaution
