摘要
环境可以对信息通信技术(ICT)标准扩散产生直接和间接的影响,以政策环境为代表的扩散环境能够显著的影响到信息通信技术标准的市场潜力.通过对Bass模型进行优化,引入非恒定影响系数并改变市场潜力m不可变的假设,在对高渗透率条件下的数据进行处理后,建立市场潜力可变的信息通信技术标准扩散模型(EPHP模型).基于Bass模型和EPHP模型分别对政府在技术标准扩散中有显著作用的欧洲GSM扩散进行分析,并通过统计检验比较Bass模型和EPHP模型,发现EPHP模型在有政府参与的技术标准扩散的市场潜力分析上优于Bass模型,通过实证分析得出政府行为能够对ICT技术标准市场潜力产生积极影响进而加速扩散的结论.
Environment could have direct and indirect effects on the information and communication technology（ICT） standards diffusion,and policy environment could significantly impact the ICT standards for market potential.Through optimizing the Bass model,importing the non-constant influence coefficient ＇m＇ and changing the assumption that ＇m＇ could not be changed.After data processing under the conditions of high permeability,the diffusion model of ICT standards on exchangeable market potential in the condition of high permeability is established,which is called for short as EPHP model.Europe GSM technical standard diffusion,supported by the government significantly,is analyzed both based on the Bass model and the EPHP model.Through statistical tests compared,the EPHP models is turn out to be superior in analyzing the market potential of the technical standards under the government involvement.The conclusion is obtained through the empirical analysis that government action could have a positive impact on the market potential for ICT technical standards and promote its diffusion.
出处
《哈尔滨商业大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2010年第4期498-502,共5页
Journal of Harbin University of Commerce：Natural Sciences Edition
基金
科学技术部软科学项目(2003DGQ2D043)
关键词
信息通信技术
标准扩散
BASS模型
市场潜力
EPHP模型
information and communication technology
standards diffusion
Bass model
market potential
EPHP model
