摘要
终止机制是保持应急管理周期完整性必不可少的最后一环。现实中,即使意识到有效终止应急状态的重要性,也很有可能因为无法选择恰当的终止点而造成巨大损失或资源浪费,确定最优的终止时间点成为急需解决的问题。本文基于有限情形的最优停止理论对此问题进行了建模,并分析了模型的改进和完善的可能,将其扩展至整个应急过程,以期解决应急中的动态终止决策问题,为行业和领域应急的实践提供方法依据。
Termination Mechanism is the last indispensable section of the whole process of emergency management. Even if the governors have realized the importance of termination, it is much possible for them to choose wrong time to terminate emergency managemet which will cause huge damage. To solve this problem, this paper intends to build a mathematical model based on Optimal Stopping Theory, and then discusses some improvements of this model. Finally, Optimal Stopping Theory is applied to the dynamic decision making of emergency management.
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第4期173-182,共10页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
关键词
最优停止理论
终止机制
终止时间
动态决策
optimal stopping theory
termination mechanism
time point
dynamic decision making
