摘要
2010年上半年经济增速的回调,很大程度上是国内宏观调控政策紧缩的结果。目前我国经济仍处于中长期回调阶段,美欧日经济复苏势头趋弱,2010年第二季度以后我国经济增速将持续回调,回调幅度取决于国内宏观调控政策的微调力度和美欧日进口增速的下降幅度。在国内政策保持稳定和美欧日进口增速小幅度下降情况下,2010年和2011年我国经济增速将分别回调到10.6%和10.2%。但如果美欧日进口增速大幅度下降、人民币汇率大幅度升值的情况同时发生,2010年和2011年我国经济增速将分别深度回调到9.8%和8.4%。
The economic growth callback in the first half of 2010 is the result of tightening domestic macro-control policies. At present, China＇s economy is still in the long-term callback phase and the recovery of the United States, Europe and Japan＇s economy is weak. After the second quarter of 2010, China＇s economic growth will continue callback and the call- back rate will depend on the intensity of domestic macro-control policy and the decline rate of import growth of the United States, Europe and Japan. Based on the stability of domestic policies and the modest decline of import growth of the United States, Europe and Japan, China＇s economic growth will respectively callback to 10.6 % and 10.2 % in 2010 and 2011. However, if the import growth of the United States, Europe and Japan decline significantly and the RMB exchange rate appreciate substantially, China＇s economic growth will respectively callback to9.8 % and 8.4 % in 2010 and 2011.
出处
《改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第7期53-68,共16页
Reform
关键词
经济增长
经济周期
发展趋势
economic growth, economic cycle, development trend
